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U.S. Patent and Trademark Office Data Can Guide Analysis

• A rapid increase in patent applications filed related to a specific classification can represent its dissemination into new and often unrelated technological areas. This rapid increase in patent application filing is a signal of technology emergence and industry acceptance.

S-Curves Indicate Technology Emergence

• S-curves of patent applications and issued patents often appear when classifications and subclassifications form an increasing number of linkages to other classifications and subclassifications.
• Through analysis of the emergence s-curve, by categorizing patents in terms of their distance from the year of emergence, we define a potential value metric for technology transfer staff in government, nonprofit institutions, or private-sector firms seeking to maximize the value of their patent portfolios or their chances of winning in the event of litigation.
• The same analysis of the position of patents in time with respect to the year of emergence provides a means to analyze patent portfolios of individuals or organizations with respect to whether they are "leading" or "following" the commercial interest in the field.
• Comparison of the tendency of organizations to be "leading" or "following," in specific areas in which they patent provides a metric of the novelty of their work in those areas.
• Analysis of the spread of technology into new areas provides a means of identifying areas into which technologies may be most likely to move in the future.