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Nine Non-Economic Factors Increase Automobility

• Factors fall into two categories: transportation policy factors (car infrastructure, inexpensive fuel, pro-car policies, and lack of alternatives to driving) and exogenous factors (active population, domestic oil, domestic car industry, spatial dispersion, and car culture).
• These nine factors seem to have affected automobility in developed countries.

These Factors Are Correlated with Automobility

• The nine factors, each assigned a weight and scored, together yield an automobility score for each country.
• The automobility scores were good predictors of automobility in the developed countries. Car infrastructure and spatial dispersion seem to be the most significant.

Developing Countries Are Forecasted to Have a Range of Automobility Outcomes

• According to the automobility scores, Brazil is forecasted to have the highest levels of automobility, and India the lowest.

These Findings Have Policy Implications

• The factors that influence travel demand, especially the exogenous ones, change only slowly over time. Substantial growth in personal vehicle travel is likely to occur no matter what transportation policies are adopted.
• Although there is a strong correlation in developed countries between income growth and growth in vehicle travel, income levels alone are not good predictors of travel demand.
• Understanding economic growth is quite helpful in understanding changes in travel demand over time within a country but far less so in understanding travel demand differences between countries.
• Policymakers can influence travel demand through transportation policies. Especially in developing countries, where the infrastructure and spatial patterns are still being developed, there are opportunities to dampen the demand for driving.