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Terrorism Remains a Real, Albeit Ambiguous, National Security Threat

• The most likely attack scenarios involve arson, conventional explosives, or firearms. Al Qaeda and other groups may aspire to conduct more destructive attacks using unconventional weapons, but so far lack the combined intent and capability to do so.
• However, analysis of past and current trends does not resolve the uncertainty surrounding the future risk of terrorism.

Terrorism Risk Models Are Limited in the Types of Risk They Can Estimate

• Terrorism risk models based on historical events or theories of terrorist decisionmaking are limited: They cannot extrapolate to estimate the likelihood of future attacks from terrorist threats beyond those that have been already recognized.
• The $27.5 billion threshold for aggregate insured losses in TRIA ensures that the insurance industry, rather than the taxpayer, is ultimately responsible for paying for incidents that are within the realm of the industry's modeling capability.

Terrorism Insurance Can Contribute to Making Communities More Resilient to Terrorism Events

• Access to appropriately priced terrorism insurance can promote economic growth, making resources available to address national security threats or other social problems.
• Terrorism insurance can improve both the pace and effectiveness of recovery efforts, since such efforts will be more rapid and efficient when it is clear how much compensation will be available and how it will be distributed.
• To the extent that terrorism insurance is more available with TRIA than without it, renewing the legislation would contribute to improved national security.