| 来源类型 | Research Reports
|
| 规范类型 | 报告
|
| ISBN | 9780833090485
|
| 来源ID | RR-1075-DOS
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| Reducing the Cultivation of Opium Poppies in Southern Afghanistan |
| Victoria Greenfield; Keith Crane; Craig A. Bond; Nathan Chandler; Jill E. Luoto; Olga Oliker
|
| 发表日期 | 2015
|
| 出版年 | 2015
|
| 页码 | 266
|
| 语种 | 英语
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| 结论 |
- A broad range of socio-economic and other environmental factors, relating to security, eradication, and environmental risks; governance and religiosity; landholding terms and conditions; household circumstances; and agricultural input costs and commodity prices, drive farmers' decisions to cultivate opium poppy or other crops.
- Socio-economic and environmental factors that drive farmers' cultivation decisions can present indeterminate or conflicting incentives to produce opium poppy or other crops, depending largely on farmers' relative concerns for household income and food sufficiency and risk tolerance. In consequence, many or most programs can have divergent effects.
- Substantial increases in rural incomes must occur before programs to reduce opium poppy cultivation can result in broad-based, sustained declines, but need not suffice.
- Near-term, program-led declines in aggregate opium poppy cultivation are highly implausible, but programs can still be directed to foster necessary conditions, especially with regard to incomes, to create better conditions for reducing opium poppy cultivation over the long term.
- A modest set of projects holds the most promise for opium poppy reductions, in that they might eventually steer farmers toward legal opportunities. Examples include projects that focus on substantially improving the relative returns of high-value, poppy-competing, legal commodities with well-established accessible markets and boosting rural wages.
- The weight of the evidence suggests that a blanket policy of widespread eradication cannot shift southern Afghanistan's rural economy away from illegal cultivation, but does not rule out the possibility that eradication can play a strategic, targeted role, particularly over the longer-term, with advancement of incomes, good governance, and social change.
|
| 摘要 |
- Programs should focus on traditional agricultural products, such as fruit, nuts, grapes, and other perennial orchard crops, with well-established markets; improve product quality through better sorting, grading, and processing; establish stronger links between farms and markets; employ inexpensive, readily available, maintainable, and simple technologies; and try to reach a large enough number of farmers to stimulate and sustain associated support and marketing industries.
- Programs should not try to introduce agricultural products new to Afghanistan; rely on complex technologies, especially those that need electricity and other not-yet developed or widely accessible supporting infrastructure; or fail to ensure a local market for the product.
- Within the broad contours of that framework, programs that focus on substantially improving the relative returns of high-value, poppy-competing, legal commodities with well-established, accessible markets and boosting rural wages are more likely to shift the rural economy in the direction of legality than other programs over time, as incomes rise.
- The weight of the evidence does not support a blanket policy of widespread eradication efforts in Helmand or Kandahar, but it does not rule out a strategic, targeted role, particularly over the longer-term, with advancement of incomes, good governance, and social change.
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| 主题 | Afghanistan
; Agricultural Sciences
; Economic Development
; Illegal Drug Trade
; Illegal Drugs
|
| URL | https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1075.html
|
| 来源智库 | RAND Corporation (United States)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/107898
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Victoria Greenfield,Keith Crane,Craig A. Bond,et al. Reducing the Cultivation of Opium Poppies in Southern Afghanistan. 2015.
|
