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Strategic Trends May Make Limiting Civilian Casualties Increasingly Difficult

• Urban warfare: Anticipated trends in population growth and urbanization mean that the United States is increasingly likely to face urban operational environments. It is difficult to conduct urban warfare while maintaining low levels of collateral damage, although doing so is widely seen as essential for maintaining political support for military operations.
• Hybrid adversaries: The potential for hybrid adversaries to acquire and learn to effectively employ standoff fire capabilities may limit the United States' ability to conduct precision strikes that minimize civilian casualties.

Anticipated Technological Changes May Only Modestly Increase Usable U.S. Capabilities

• Technological advances could give the U.S. military significant new capabilities in the years to come, but the extent to which some of these advances can be used in a manner consistent with the United States' implementation of the LOAC remains in question. This report examines technological trends in autonomous weapon systems, nonlethal weapons, cyber warfare, and space warfare.

Normative Trends May Strengthen Political Pressures to Avoid Collateral Damage

• A number of normative or social trends may influence U.S. LOAC implementation, by affecting domestic public or foreign partner support of or adverse reaction to U.S. military activities. The analysis in this report focused on several trends, including domestic reactions to civilian casualties, the diffusion of recording technology, differing partner attitudes, and the deliberate exploitation of U.S. concern for the LOAC by its adversaries. Overall, these trends are likely to increase political pressures on the United States to minimize civilian casualties.