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Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) Challenges for the Air Force

• U.S. forces may not be postured in a resilient manner, particularly in the Western Pacific, making them vulnerable to attack and degrading their effectiveness.
• Competition for U.S. defense resources will not allow large expenditures to resolve resilience shortcomings.
• Cost-effective strategies can and must be found to reposture the force for greater resilience.
• Improving operational resilience will both improve U.S. combat capabilities and strengthen deterrence and crisis stability.

An Analysis Framework for Operational Resilience

• The Operational Resilience Analysis Model (ORAM) can aid in calculating the potential impacts of Red attacks and the improvements that might be gained from different combinations of potential resilience investments. ORAM provides a means to measure the complex relationships between enemy attacks, resilience improvements, and combat power.
• Operational resilience analysis using ORAM can be conducted by running multiple cases through ORAM and adjusting each side's strategies based on what the outputs of those runs revealed. Vis this two-sided game, ORAM case runs reveal the most likely enemy attacks and most needed resilience improvements.