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CERP Spending Can Be Effective When Nested Within Operations

• CERP operations are associated with enhancing the security and economic environment of the local population over the long term and long-term reductions in violent attacks against coalition forces.

Analysis Suggests That Quantitative Measures of CERP Spending Function as a Proxy for Overall Coalition Activity

• CERP spending on compensation payments, local security, and humanitarian assistance seem to function as a proxy for coalition-kinetic military operations, while spending on agriculture, public services, transportation, and water functions as a proxy for development-focused military operations.

CERP Implementers Employed a Diversity of "Theories of Change" in Their Application of CERP

• The implementers' theories of change are the causal pathways through which they believe they could achieve these population- and coalition-focused outcomes.

"Softer" Outcomes (e.g., Building Relationships with Locals) Were More Important to Implementers Than Building Infrastructure

• Projects were much more effective in building rapport, freedom of movement for locals and coalition forces, and local governance and security.
• Efforts to improve these softer outcomes were reportedly successful some 75–80 percent of the time.

Almost All Operators Indicated That Implementation in Afghanistan Was Far from Optimal and That Significant Changes to the Program Should Be Made

• Significant challenges face the program, either in terms of the way that it was administered by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) or implemented in the field.
• The challenges highlighted by these operators echoed the perspectives offered by senior leaders and the existing literature on CERP.