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Petroleum Was Important but not the only Factor in Russia's Economic Growth Between 1999 and 2008

• One of the hallmarks of Russia's growth was the boom in oil and gas exports.
• However, the most dynamic sectors of the Russian economy were construction, retail and wholesale trade, and transport and telecommunications.
• Market disciplines and private sector expansion massively improved the efficiency with which capital and other resources were used.

A Variety of Factors Fed into the Current Russian Recession

• With the recent fall in oil prices, Russia's terms of trade have deteriorated.
• A variety of structural barriers severely impede the increases in productivity needed to drive growth.
• State control of the economy, including renationalization of business, has increased.
• Corruption and other factors have made the business environment increasingly inhospitable.
• Western sanctions, among other things, have reduced investor confidence and increased the cost of capital.
• The size of the labor force has declined.

A Modest Uptick Might Occur in 2016, but Growth Will Require Addressing the Factors That Led to the Recession

• Without major policy changes, the Russian economy will grow slowly in the medium term, even if world market prices for oil rebound sharply.
• An aggressive program to privatize state-owned assets, clamp down on corruption, and improve the business environment should lead to substantially higher rates of growth.
• Fully implementing the Minsk accords regarding eastern Ukraine, with a resulting elimination of many Western sanctions, could also boost GDP growth.
• More-welcoming immigration policies would also boost growth by offsetting the declining workforce.