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Iraq's Perspective

• The secession of the Kurds would pose a direct challenge to Baghdad's authority. However, Baghdad's ability to prevent the Kurds from gaining independence may be limited.
• A unilateral declaration of Kurdish independence is likely to provoke the most hostile response from Baghdad. In contrast, a gradual estrangement between Erbil and Baghdad that led to a negotiated separation would enable Baghdad to mitigate the negative consequences of Kurdish independence and has possible long-term benefits for both parties.
• If the drive for Kurdish independence were accompanied by the reemergence of pan-Kurdish nationalism, Baghdad might be able to coordinate with Ankara and Tehran against Kurdish independence.

Turkey's Perspective

• Once a strong opponent of an independent Kurdistan, Turkey has now developed close political and economic ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
• From Turkey's vantage point, slow and steady progress toward Kurdish independence has significant political and economic advantages, whereas sudden moves toward sovereignty — and especially any apparent promotion by the KRG greater autonomy for Kurds in Turkey and Syria — pose political and economic risks.

Iran's Perspective

• The issue of an independent Kurdistan is sensitive for the Islamic Republic because of fears that it would embolden its own large population of repressed Kurds.
• Iran may tolerate an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq if Iran judges it would not threaten its own stability.
• From the Iranian government's perspective, a gradual and preferably negotiated Kurdish separation from Iraq would be preferable, as it would decrease Baghdad's objections to Kurdish independence and provide Tehran with the time necessary to mitigate potential unrest at home.