G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1408
来源IDRR-1408-OSD
Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community
Stephen Artner; Richard S. Girven; James B. Bruce
发表日期2016
出版年2016
页码17
语种英语
结论

The Intelligence Community Is Strongly Emphasizing the Use of Structured Analytic Techniques to Promote Rigorous Analysis But Has Made Little Effort to Assess Whether They Are Measurably Improving the Quality of Analysis

  • One primarily qualitative method to evaluate these techniques would be periodic in-depth reviews of intelligence production on a variety of topics to ascertain how frequently structured techniques are used and which ones are most effective.
  • In addition, quantitative research could examine the extent to which the use or nonuse of structured techniques correlates with the quality of analytic output as measured by product evaluation staffs, while controlled experiments could test these methods' contribution to intelligence analysis.

RAND's Preliminary Review of a Limited Sample of Intelligence Publications Finds That the Minority of Those Employing Structured Techniques Addressed a Broader Range of Potential Outcomes and Implications Than Did Other Analyses

  • In some cases, however, key assumptions and the logic behind specific techniques were not transparent.
  • More comprehensive reviews, along with interviews of analysts, managers, and consumers, could determine how effectively agencies are employing structured techniques and provide lessons learned on best practices and pitfalls of their use in intelligence analysis.
主题Intelligence Analysis ; Program Evaluation ; United States
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1408.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108309
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Stephen Artner,Richard S. Girven,James B. Bruce. Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community. 2016.
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