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The Intelligence Community Is Strongly Emphasizing the Use of Structured Analytic Techniques to Promote Rigorous Analysis But Has Made Little Effort to Assess Whether They Are Measurably Improving the Quality of Analysis

• One primarily qualitative method to evaluate these techniques would be periodic in-depth reviews of intelligence production on a variety of topics to ascertain how frequently structured techniques are used and which ones are most effective.
• In addition, quantitative research could examine the extent to which the use or nonuse of structured techniques correlates with the quality of analytic output as measured by product evaluation staffs, while controlled experiments could test these methods' contribution to intelligence analysis.

RAND's Preliminary Review of a Limited Sample of Intelligence Publications Finds That the Minority of Those Employing Structured Techniques Addressed a Broader Range of Potential Outcomes and Implications Than Did Other Analyses

• In some cases, however, key assumptions and the logic behind specific techniques were not transparent.
• More comprehensive reviews, along with interviews of analysts, managers, and consumers, could determine how effectively agencies are employing structured techniques and provide lessons learned on best practices and pitfalls of their use in intelligence analysis.