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The Durability of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is in Doubt

• The U.S. Department of State has concluded that Russia is in violation of its obligations under the treaty.
• The United States remains committed to the treaty and seeks to encourage Russia to return to compliance by eliminating prohibited systems. The prospects are unclear; attempts to revive the treaty could take several years.
• It is too soon for the U.S. to decide to withdraw from the treaty, but it is still worth examining the benefits and risks of adding conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles (TBMs) to the U.S. force structure.

China's Rapid Military Modernization Could Threaten U.S. Forces

• Land-based, conventionally armed precision ballistic and cruise missile systems have been a focus area for modernization.
• Chinese TBMs could play a key enabling role in counterintervention campaigns.

TBMs Offer Some Potential Benefits

• TBMs might provide negotiating leverage in new arms-control negotiations.
• TBMs can be survivable, can strike quickly, and can penetrate many defenses.
• Development risks are likely lower for TBMs than for other candidate technologies.

But the Benefits Must Be Weighed Against the Potential Risks

• Land-based TBMs would require regional access agreements, which may be difficult to obtain.
• TBMs are more expensive than some alternatives, such as cruise missiles, and could be slow to deploy into rapidly evolving crises.
• The characteristics of TBMs make it difficult to reassure adversaries that they will not be used in surprise attacks on leadership or other sensitive targets, potentially undermining structural stability and crisis management.