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If There Are Shortages of Primary Care Physicians and Services in Rural Washington, These Shortages Are Likely to Worsen in the Coming Decade

• The number of rural primary care physicians per capita will decrease by approximately 3.66 per 100,000 by 2025 — a 7-percent reduction from 2013 levels.
• Urban areas of Washington State will experience a reduction of 4.14 primary care physicians per 100,000 — a 5-percent reduction from 2013 levels.
• None of the policy options modeled in this report, on its own, will offset this expected decrease by relying on physicians alone.
• Combinations of these strategies or partial reallocation of rural primary care services to nurse practitioners and physician assistants via such new practice models as medical homes and nurse-managed health centers are plausible options for preserving the overall availability of primary care services in rural Washington through 2025.