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Projected Demand, River Allocations, and Changes in Climate Affect Residential, Industrial, and Agricultural Sectors

• Because of data limitations, particularly pertaining to surface and groundwater interactions, model results should be taken as instructive and not definitive.
• All of the downscaled climate projections show warming. However, there is scientific disagreement about whether conditions will be getting wetter or drier. One of the benefits of this analysis is that it helps Jinan officials understand how important this uncertainty is by looking at results across a wide range of wetter and drier conditions. Our study shows that it is not an important factor in most cases.
• Unmet demand in the residential sector is driven more by levels of projected demand and allocation of Yellow River resources than by changes in future climate.
• Under a medium demand projection and full Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable only under an assumption of low initial groundwater storage. Under a 50-percent Yellow River allocation, the industrial sector is vulnerable under all demand projections, regardless of initial groundwater assumptions.
• The vulnerability of the agricultural sector depends on future climate more than the residential and industrial sectors. We see no shortages in the wettest climates but very significant shortages in drier climates.
• Jinan's springs are vulnerable across all futures. Even in wet climates, low spring flows each year occur around three months on average; in dry climates, low flows appear on average about eight months each year.