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Health Insurance Enrollment Would Have Decreased

• The authors estimate that the American Health Care Act (AHCA) would have reduced health insurance enrollment by 14.2 million people in 2020; the loss of health insurance would have increased to 19.7 million people by 2026.
• The AHCA would have increased the federal deficit by $38 billion in 2020 while reducing the deficit by $5 billion in 2026.

Older Individuals, Poorer Individuals, and Those with Worse Self-Reported Health Would Have Been Disproportionately Affected by the AHCA

• Most adults ages 50 to 64 and most people with incomes under 200 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) would have paid more for individual-market insurance under the AHCA than under current law. The higher costs for older adults partly reflect that the AHCA's tax credits did not increase as steeply with age as premiums did.
• In 2020, the number of uninsured individuals age 50 to 64 would have been 119 percent larger under the AHCA than under the ACA, compared with a 42-percent increase for those under age 50.
• The authors estimated an 80-percent increase in the number of uninsured people with incomes at or below 200 percent of the FPL under the AHCA, compared with a 15-percent increase in the number of uninsured people with incomes above 200 percent of the FPL.
• The authors also found a 99-percent increase in the number of uninsured individuals in poor or fair self-reported health; this finding reflects that sicker people are more likely than healthy people to be older and poorer and are thus more likely to lose access to Medicaid or face high premiums in the individual market.