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Modeled Outcomes for 2019

• Enrollment would increase by more than 260 percent under the 100-percent enrollment scenario and by nearly 200 percent under the 70-percent enrollment scenario.
• Total program expenditures would increase dramatically, in part because of increased reimbursement rates, but largely because of the increased enrollment.
• Increases in administrative costs reflect the increased enrollment, but we found that these projections had a large amount of uncertainty.
• New sources of revenues included federal medical assistance percentage funds (which the authors estimated conservatively at current Medicaid reimbursement rates) and increased premium collections.
• Because premium collection was limited to no more than $60 per family per month ($720 per year), regardless of family income, program expenditures per enrollee far outpace current program revenues per enrollee.
• The resulting additional revenue required ranges from $343 million (with 70-percent enrollment and Medicare reimbursement levels) to $667 million (with 100-percent enrollment and commercial reimbursement levels).
• Given Medicare reimbursement rates, the new tax rates in the three financing strategies that were modeled range from a 2.5–percentage-point additive increase in the income tax schedule (for the 70-percent enrollment scenario) to a 3.9–percentage-point increase in the payroll tax (for the 100-percent enrollment scenario).