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The Degree of Unexplained Variation Allows for Only a Range of Cost and Schedule Growth Prediction

• It is not possible to accurately estimate an MDAP's level of future cost growth or schedule slip, because there is simply too much unexplained variation in program cost and schedule outcomes.
• This approach can provide decisionmakers with useful information, however, on the range of uncertainty in MDAP outcomes that they can expect.
• Findings from this methodology can help inform acquisition policy and direct senior leadership attention to those programs that pose the greatest risk of poor outcomes.