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Trends in Conflict

• Overall levels of conflict have been declining in the past two decades.
• Interstate violence has decreased the most, both in the incidence and intensity of armed conflict.
• Intrastate conflict and low-intensity violence have declined more slowly, but have decreased in incidence and intensity.

Key Factors in Change in Conflict Patterns

• Capacity of state institutions
• Degree of ethnic and sectarian polarization
• Prevalence of consolidated democracies
• Rate of economic growth
• Extent of economic interdependence
• Capabilities of international organizations
• Degree of U.S. preeminence
• Strength of international norms
• Diffusion of lethal technology
• Extent of resource stress because of population pressures

Future Projections of Conflict

• Both the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections depict a continued decline through 2040.
• The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies.
• The two factors that most strongly increased intrastate conflict expectations were declining capacity of state institutions and declining rates of economic growth.