G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1063
ISBN9780833090553
来源IDRR-1063-A
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Thomas S. Szayna; Angela O'Mahony; Jennifer Kavanagh; Stephen Watts; Bryan Frederick; Tova C. Norlen; Phoenix Voorhies
发表日期2017
出版年2017
页码286
语种英语
结论

Trends in Conflict

  • Overall levels of conflict have been declining in the past two decades.
  • Interstate violence has decreased the most, both in the incidence and intensity of armed conflict.
  • Intrastate conflict and low-intensity violence have declined more slowly, but have decreased in incidence and intensity.

Key Factors in Change in Conflict Patterns

  • Capacity of state institutions
  • Degree of ethnic and sectarian polarization
  • Prevalence of consolidated democracies
  • Rate of economic growth
  • Extent of economic interdependence
  • Capabilities of international organizations
  • Degree of U.S. preeminence
  • Strength of international norms
  • Diffusion of lethal technology
  • Extent of resource stress because of population pressures

Future Projections of Conflict

  • Both the interstate and intrastate baseline future conflict projections depict a continued decline through 2040.
  • The three factors that most strongly increased interstate conflict expectations were declining U.S. preeminence, declining capabilities of international organizations, and declining prevalence of consolidated democracies.
  • The two factors that most strongly increased intrastate conflict expectations were declining capacity of state institutions and declining rates of economic growth.
主题Democracy ; Global Security ; Military Force Planning ; Military Logistics ; Threat Assessment
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1063.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108560
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Thomas S. Szayna,Angela O'Mahony,Jennifer Kavanagh,et al. Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections. 2017.
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