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Military Pressure on ISIL-Held Areas Has Dampened Economic Activity and Prevented ISIL from Fully Governing According to Its Stated Goals

• This pressure has contributed to significant economic decay in ISIL-held territory and limits ISIL's ability to profit from taxation and gain popular legitimacy.

ISIL's Strict Governance Is Not Necessarily Self-Defeating

• Local economies that struggled under ISIL control did so not because taxes were too high or social regulations too restrictive. The struggles largely coincided with military efforts to disrupt ISIL control.

ISIL Showed Signs of Successful Stewardship over Local Economies but Also Signs of Incompetence and Indifference

• In multiple cities, ISIL prioritized electricity provision to hospitals and key infrastructure even in the face of larger electricity shortages.

Electricity Consumption Has Suffered the Most of All Economic Activity Under ISIL Control

• Electricity consumption in ISIL-held areas showed the most-significant declines from pre-ISIL levels of activity.
• After liberation, these effects linger.

Flows of Internally Displaced Persons Begin Well Prior to Liberation

• Planning for liberation of ISIL-held cities must take into account the fact that these flows begin well before the first military forces enter an ISIL-held city.

Markets Do Not Return to Normal Activity Immediately After a City Is Liberated

• Markets are partially damaged by fighting during ISIL's retreat and appear largely empty following liberation because residents fled the fighting.

Bureaucratic Capacity Likely Remains in Areas Liberated from ISIL

• Liberating forces are likely to encounter local doctors, engineers, and bureaucrats who either voluntarily worked for ISIL or were co-opted into doing so.