全球智库信息集成服务系统

Results of Analysis

• The authors found that changes in visit volume caused by the Affordable Care Act coverage expansion were larger for Medicaid enrollees, individuals covered by private insurance, and individuals without insurance. However, they estimated that 19 percent of TRICARE physicians would find that they could replace all of their current TRICARE net revenue with net revenue from the newly insured post-coverage expansion and were therefore "at risk." These physicians accounted for about 7 percent of TRICARE visits. Primary care physicians were more likely to be at risk than specialist physicians.
• Under a scenario in which Congress increases Medicaid payment rates for certain primary care providers and services to Medicare levels (as was done in 2013 and 2014), the proportion of TRICARE visits to primary care providers able to replace all of their current TRICARE net revenue with net revenue from the newly insured increases from 7 percent under the base assumptions to 17 percent.

Policy Option to Mitigate Loss of Access

• One short-term option to mitigate potential TRICARE purchased care access issues is to increase TRICARE rates.