G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1631
ISBN9780833096920
来源IDRR-1631-RC
Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
Andrew R. Hoehn; Richard H. Solomon; Sonni Efron; Frank Camm; Anita Chandra; Debra Knopman; Burgess Laird; Robert J. Lempert; Howard J. Shatz; Casimir Yost
发表日期2017
出版年2017
页码310
语种英语
结论

Americans Ambivalent and Divided

  • For more than seven decades, the United States and its friends and allies built a liberal international order that ushered in an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Today, after 15 years of inconclusive wars, widespread disenchantment with the country's economic performance, and a polarizing presidential election, Americans are mistrustful of their government and divided over their country's role.

Major Global Realignments Will Require U.S. Attention

  • Major-power shifts and realignments have occurred around the world. The next administration will need to deal with Russian and Chinese military modernization and aggressive postures, yet seek their cooperation on global security and economic issues. This will require deft "Rubik's Cube" diplomacy: multi-dimensional thinking and the ability to manage ambiguous relationships with governments that have both shared and conflicting interests.

Slow Growth, Trouble in the Labor Market, and Federal Debt Will Be Challenging

  • U.S. growth prospects are better than those of any other major developed country, and the country is better positioned than any of its rivals to address problems, including debt, jobs, dislocation and demographics. Slow global growth, domestic labor market weakness, and record debt-to-GDP ratio will be challenges.

Nuclear Weapons, Biological Threats, and Climate Change Are Potentially Existential Threats

  • The United States faces no certain existential threat. But U.S. leadership will be required to address potentially existential threats from Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons, emerging biological threats, and rapid climate change. Reducing these supranational threats is a core U.S. interest that must remain a constant focus.
摘要
  • Think deeply not only about which strategic concept and policies to choose, but also about how to choose them. In a world of limited resources, choices are required. Failure to make decisions is also a choice, and often not a wise one. Six criteria are offered for decisionmaking in the face of uncertainty:
  • Scrutinize assumptions: Faulty assumptions are the cause of many dangerous blunders; in this period of intense partisanship, policymakers should redouble efforts to separate ideology from assumptions, the unknown from the unlikely, and the truth from the tendentious.
  • Seize opportunities: America's opportunities exceed its limitations. The report identifies areas of opportunity and the investments that might be needed to realize them.
  • Uphold U.S. commitments: Maintain the friendship and trust of America's most important allies. America's greatest strength is its ability to develop and maintain friends and partners across the globe. No other competitor has this advantage; to surrender or squander this advantage would be a catastrophic strategic failure.
  • Play both the long and the short games: Distinguish the challenge of the moment from the fundamental policies and structures needed to secure the future.
  • Align U.S. interests with values: While interests and values can be in tension over particular matters, they must ultimately align to secure support from the American people. The report offers three criteria to aid in reconciling differences.
  • Limit regret. Take all reasonable efforts to secure the American people and territory from serious harm, most of all from nuclear weapons, biological threats, or rapid climate change.
主题Complex Systems Analysis ; Demographics ; Global Climate Change ; Intelligence Community ; International Economic Relations ; North Atlantic Treaty Organization ; Nuclear Weapons and Warfare ; Science ; Technology ; and Innovation Policy ; Terrorism ; United States
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1631.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108581
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Andrew R. Hoehn,Richard H. Solomon,Sonni Efron,et al. Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity. 2017.
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