全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts

G2TT

来源类型	Research Reports
规范类型	报告
DOI	https://doi.org/10.7249/RR1831
ISBN	9780833097767
来源ID	RR-1831-A
	The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
	Jennifer Kavanagh; Bryan Frederick; Matthew Povlock; Stacie L. Pettyjohn; Angela O'Mahony; Stephen Watts; Nathan Chandler; John Speed Meyers; Eugeniu Han
发表日期	2017
出版年	2017
页码	374
语种	英语
结论	The closer the relationship between the target country of the intervention and the United States and the greater the severity of the conflict, crisis, or threat to which the United States is responding, the greater the likelihood of a U.S. ground intervention. The United States has been substantially more likely to intervene in a country when it is has intervened in that country within the past 10 years, and has been more likely to conduct stability operations in a country when it was involved in a preceding combat phase. Interventions into armed conflicts have been less likely following large numbers of U.S. combat deaths — evidence of "war weariness" — but this effect does not extend to other types of interventions. Interventions have clustered geographically; the United States has been more likely to intervene in a country if it has recently intervened in a nearby country (within 1,000 kilometers). The number of wars going on in the world and the U.S. domestic political context have not appeared to affect the likelihood or size of an intervention. While deterrence interventions have tended to be larger in cases involving close U.S. allies, interventions into armed conflicts and stability operations in close allies have tended to be smaller. The actual duration of an intervention has tended to be significantly longer than planned for or expected.
摘要	Closer attention to the key intervention signposts identified in this analysis — such as a target country's relationship with the United States, past U.S. military involvement, and the severity of the crisis or threat — could increase preparation and planning time and allow for better anticipation of interventions. Beginning the planning process and developing some resource estimates and generic outlines for what an intervention might look like using intervention signposts as a guide would go a long way toward reducing the number of unexpected interventions and speeding the ability of the Army to respond quickly and efficiently when needed.
主题	Forecasting Methodology ; Land Warfare ; Low-Intensity Conflict ; Major Combat Operations ; Peacekeeping and Stability Operations ; United States Army
URL	https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1831.html
来源智库	RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108588
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jennifer Kavanagh,Bryan Frederick,Matthew Povlock,et al. The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts. 2017.

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