全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States

G2TT

来源类型	Research Reports
规范类型	报告
DOI	https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2200
来源ID	RR-2200-RC
	After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States
	Charles P. Ries; Marco Hafner; Troy D. Smith; Frances G. Burwell; Daniel Egel; Eugeniu Han; Martin Stepanek; Howard J. Shatz
发表日期	2017
出版年	2017
页码	159
语种	英语
结论	The economic analysis shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most plausible scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse-off it will be post-Brexit. The option of leaving the EU with no deal and entering World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic losses for the UK. This would reduce future GDP by around five per cent over ten years, which is a loss of $140 billion. Under WTO rules, the EU would also lose out economically, but nowhere near the same proportion as the UK — about 0.7 per cent of its overall GDP, which is $97 billion. Of all the scenarios analysed, the one that would have the most benefit would be a trilateral UK-EU-U.S. agreement, essentially a TTIP-like free-trade agreement. However, this is seen as very unlikely in the current political environment. The U.S. will miss the influence and global perspective that the UK brings to the EU decision-making process, particularly around foreign policy, security and defence. It will be important for the UK to move into a 'positive-sum game' in Brexit negotiations to ensure the best possible deal for all parties. Although the EU is likely to cooperate with the UK, it may see greater benefit in adopting a 'negative sum game'. Overall, it is in the best interests of the UK, and to a lesser extent the EU, to work together to achieve some sort of trade deal post-Brexit.
主题	European Union ; International Economic Relations ; International Trade ; United Kingdom ; United States
URL	https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2200.html
来源智库	RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108619
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Charles P. Ries,Marco Hafner,Troy D. Smith,et al. After Brexit: Alternate forms of Brexit and their implications for the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States. 2017.

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