G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR1994
ISBN9780833098023
来源IDRR-1994-OSD
Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order
Michael J. Mazarr; Astrid Stuth Cevallos; Miranda Priebe; Andrew Radin; Kathleen Reedy; Alexander D. Rothenberg; Julia A. Thompson; Jordan Willcox
发表日期2017
出版年2017
页码228
语种英语
结论

The Order Remains Relatively Stable Since 1945, but Recent Trends May Threaten It

  • To gauge the health of the order, researchers examined 18 indicators, including development assistance, membership in formal institutions and alliances, peacekeeping contributions, territorial changes resulting from conflict, global indexes of democracy, and public opinion, among others.
  • Based on the analysis in this report, until recently, measurable indicators of the rule-based order remained broadly stable and did not show evidence of a rapid decline. However, developments since 2014 — including Russian aggression in Ukraine, the Brexit vote, the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the continued influence of far-right parties in Europe — suggest that the order could be in much more peril than the data through 2014 would suggest.
  • In many ways, the foundational promise of the order is economic prosperity. If public and governmental audiences perceive that the order can no longer make this promise, support for its rules, norms, and institutions could be fatally weakened, partly because so many other variables are affected by economic ones. In this sense, economic growth and stability represent a basic source of equilibrium in the order.
  • Our analysis strongly suggests that the order is robust enough to sustain some negative impacts, but if negative trends were to accelerate in all three sources of equilibrium — economic indicators, U.S. leadership, and governing systems (via the rise of authoritarian populism) — at the same time, the order could sustain fatal damage.
摘要
  • Given the multiple signs of stress already in place, were the United States to withdraw its support for alliances, end contributions to international institutions, and abandon free-trade accords, the result could be fatal damage to any concept of a meaningful international order. It is no time to conduct large-scale experiments in U.S. global retrenchment.
  • Maintaining the stability of global economic markets, institutions, and rules is the indispensable foundation for sustaining the order.
  • The United States must develop strategies for balancing engagement, norm enforcement, and accommodation of other leading powers, particularly China and Russia.
  • The tone and character of U.S. leadership will have to change to sustain the current order. The undeniable multipolarity of the emerging system, as well as the high sensitivity of populist and nationalist great powers, means that traditional U.S. approaches to diplomacy in an era of U.S. preeminence must give way to approaches that are more nuanced and patient. This does not mean the United States should step back from decisive leadership but rather that it should exercise that leadership in ways that are less directive and domineering.
主题European Union ; Globalization ; International Diplomacy ; International Trade ; North Atlantic Treaty Organization ; Politics and Government ; United Nations ; United States
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1994.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108639
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Michael J. Mazarr,Astrid Stuth Cevallos,Miranda Priebe,et al. Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order. 2017.
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