全球智库信息集成服务系统

Results Suggest That More Lives Will Be Saved the Sooner HAVs Are Deployed

• We used the RAND Model of Automated Vehicle Safety to compare road fatalities under (1) a policy that allows HAVs to be deployed for consumer use when their safety performance is just 10 percent better than that of the average human driver (Improve10) and (2) a policy that waits to deploy HAVs only once they have reached significant performance improvements of 75 percent or 90 percent (Improve75 or Improve90).
• We find that, in the short term, more lives are cumulatively saved under a more permissive policy (Improve10) than stricter policies requiring greater safety advancements (Improve75 or Improve90) in nearly all conditions, and those savings can be significant — hundreds of thousands of lives.
• In the long term, more lives are cumulatively saved under an Improve10 policy than either Improve75 or Improve90 policies under all combinations of conditions we explored. In many cases, those savings can be more than half a million lives.
• There is good reason to believe that reaching significant safety improvements may take a long time and may be difficult prior to deployment. Therefore, the number of lives lost while waiting for significant improvements prior to deployment may be large.