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Under Planned Pilot Production, a Total Force Service Commitment Policy Reduces, but Does Not Eliminate, Shortages

• Most future shortages occur in the fighter pilot community.
• TFSC policies cannot close the fighter pilot gap.
• A combination of retention improvements and a modified Palace Chase program prevents mobility pilot shortages.
• A TFSC policy reduces Total Force shortages but sacrifices reserve component health for improvements in Regular Air Force health.

If Pilot Production Can Be Allocated Across Communities and Components, with a Reallocation Toward Higher Fighter Pilot Production, Requirements Can Be Met Without Increased Commitment Length

• Additional capacity to produce fighter pilots is enough to end shortages without increasing commitment length (but does not address the issue of incorporating new pilots into operational units and affording them sufficient flying time to gain experience).
• Reallocated production with a 10-year commitment meets all requirements before FY40.

General Conclusions

• Whether a TFSC policy can bring inventories into alignment hinges on the size of retention gains relative to shortages.
• Production adjustments are necessary to fully address long-run shortages.
• The timing and size of TFSC impacts make it unlikely to play a major role in addressing the aircrew crisis.
• Persistent shortages create a trade-off between Regular Air Force and reserve component health.
• Affiliation flexibility significantly affects reserve component shortfalls.
• Other potential limitations of a TFSC policy could partly offset inventory improvements.