全球智库信息集成服务系统

The analysis of nine alternative paths to Korean unification suggests that neither South Korea nor North Korea is ready for a successful unification

• North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to be unwilling to consider a path in which he does not have a clear win in the unification process. South Korean President Moon Jae-in appears to be more prepared for some form of unification compromise, but he has yet to take the actions needed to make a unification that benefits both South and North Koreans.
• The peaceful unification paths appear to be (1) infeasible to achieve or (2) unstable or likely failures because of the isolation from outside information and influence that the North Korean regime requires to maintain its position of power.
• The difficulties associated with the peaceful unification paths make it clear that the Kim family regime is the ultimate impediment to full Korean unification.
• A negotiated unification after North Korea's regime collapses is likely the best path for unification. To facilitate this or any other unification path, South Korea needs to develop policies now that would provide most North Korean elites with a friendly outcome from unification.
• Several experts on Korea believe that the only path to a stable unification involves regime change in the North followed by a gradual, cooperative, peaceful advance toward unification working with the new North Korean government, likely lasting for many years.
• North Korean weapons of mass destruction and Chinese intervention would be the most serious challenges to Korean unification.