全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives

G2TT

来源类型	Research Reports
规范类型	报告
DOI	https://doi.org/10.7249/RR2726
来源ID	RR-2726-AF
	Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives
	Michael J. Mazarr; Jonathan Blake; Abigail Casey; Tim McDonald; Stephanie Pezard; Michael Spirtas
发表日期	2018
出版年	2018
页码	47
语种	英语
结论	The emerging competition is likely to be most intense between a handful of specific states with status grievances and countervailing regional and global coalitions, including the wider international community. The hinge point of the competition will be the relationship between the architect of the rules-based order (United States) and the leading revisionist peer competitor that is involved in the most specific disputes (China). Global patterns of competition are likely to be complex and diverse, with distinct types of competition prevailing in different issue areas. Managing the escalation of regional rivalries and conflicts — and keeping the United States from being drawn into them in service of secondary interests — is likely to be a major focus of U.S. statecraft. Currently, the competition seems largely focused on status grievances or ambitions, economic prosperity, technological advantage, and regional influence rather than conquest or the conscious, intentional resort to large-scale war. The competition is likely to be most intense and persistent in nonmilitary areas of national advantage — and the targeting of other societies with such means creates emerging and poorly understood escalatory risks. The postwar multilateral order provides the essential framework in which the emerging competition will unfold. Two flashpoints for the emerging competition lie in regional territorial and influence claims and in the growing tendency of authoritarian states to seek to extend their reach and control beyond their borders. The emerging era is likely to involve a drawn-out combination of contestation, competition, and cooperation in which "winning" or "victory" is the wrong mental model.
摘要	The mindset for the emerging era should be more of management than of something to be won. This same mindset is likely to be required on many subsidiary challenges — the contest against extremism, global trade disputes, and others.
主题	Global Security ; International Diplomacy ; International Trade ; Military Strategy
URL	https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2726.html
来源智库	RAND Corporation (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108949
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Michael J. Mazarr,Jonathan Blake,Abigail Casey,et al. Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition: Theoretical and Historical Perspectives. 2018.

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