G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RR2833
来源IDRR-2833-OSD
Science-Based Scenario Design: A Proposed Method to Support Political-Strategic Analysis
Timothy R. Heath; Matthew Lane
发表日期2019
出版年2019
页码59
语种英语
结论
  • Growth in scientific research on the causes of war and the drivers of conflict escalation provides a valuable resource to create scenarios that more accurately present the conditions that could create future crises or conflict.
  • The onset of conflict is deeply influenced by structural and proximate variables.
  • Some of the structural and proximate nonmilitary factors — such as the tendency toward the multilateralization of disputes, alliance building, and serial crises — carry important implications for military decisions.
摘要
  • Strengthening the nonmilitary factors in scenarios designed to support military decision-making could thus help improve the quality of military as well as political-strategic analysis.
  • More work will be required to translate the findings from the social sciences into formats that can be more easily used in defense planning processes and intelligence analysis.
  • Findings can be summarized and arranged in a systematic manner to more closely support the development of escalation templates.
  • Further research could help clarify how differing types of conflict scenarios involve specific structural and proximate factors.
主题Decisionmaking ; Military Force Planning ; Military Intelligence
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2833.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/108979
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Timothy R. Heath,Matthew Lane. Science-Based Scenario Design: A Proposed Method to Support Political-Strategic Analysis. 2019.
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