全球智库信息集成服务系统

Abstract

When Fidel Castro departs, Cuba will reach a crossroads. A post-Castro regime that attempts to remain communist may find itself in a cul-de-sac where old policies and instruments no longer work. If such a regime should falter, a democratic-leaning replacement government is only a remote possibility. The country will face severe and simultaneous challenges on several fronts: an alienated younger generation, a growing racial divide, an aging population, and a deformed economy. Cuba's civil-society and market actors appear to be too embryonic, and democratic political opposition forces too decimated, for democracy to take hold naturally. More likely the military, arguably Cuba's most important institution, will take control.