G2TT
来源类型Research Brief
规范类型简报
来源IDRB-9858/4-AF
Chinese Threats to U.S. Surface Ships: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017
Eric Heginbotham; Michael Nixon; Forrest E. Morgan; Jacob L. Heim; Jeff Hagen; Sheng Tao Li; Jeffrey Engstrom; Martin C. Libicki; Paul DeLuca; David A. Shlapak; et al.
发表日期2015-09-14
出版年2015
页码3
语种英语
结论

Key Findings

China has rapidly improved its ability to reliably locate and to attack U.S. carrier-strike groups at distances of up to 2,000 km from its coast. Depending on the degree of risk U.S. commanders are willing to tolerate, the danger to U.S. carriers could be mitigated by holding them farther from the Chinese coast. However, this would result in fewer total sorties by naval aircraft, which would have to fly longer distances, and it would place greater demands on the U.S. Air Force for tankers to fuel them. The United States will look to counter this growing threat by developing ways to degrade Chinese intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities and by improving its own anti-missile, anti-submarine, and defensive counterair capabilities. But it will also want to consider alternative concepts of operation that rely less on the early use of carriers in waters near China's coast.

摘要

Over the past two decades, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. A RAND Project AIR FORCE report assesses trends in the relative capabilities of U.S. and Chinese forces in diverse operational areas, and at varying distances from the Chinese mainland, between 1996 and 2017. The overall conclusion is that although China continues to lag behind the United States in terms of aggregate military hardware and operational skills, it has improved its capabilities relative to those of the United States in many critical areas. Moreover, the report finds that China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland. To be clear, the goal is to avoid war, which the authors do not anticipate and which would be disastrous for both countries. Rather, this research provides an open-source assessment of trends that could affect U.S. defense and deterrence efforts and establishes a baseline for future analysis.

主题Aircraft Carriers ; Antisubmarine Warfare ; China ; Spratly Islands ; Taiwan ; United States
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9858z4.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/110547
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Eric Heginbotham,Michael Nixon,Forrest E. Morgan,等. Chinese Threats to U.S. Surface Ships: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017. 2015.
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