G2TT
来源类型Dissertations
规范类型其他
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/RGSD408
来源IDRGSD-408
Value of Information for Policy Analysis
David Manheim
发表日期2018
出版者RAND Corporation
出版年2018
页码251
语种英语
摘要

This dissertation considers the viability of applying Value of Information (VoI) methods in complex systems for policy analysis, concluding that these methods can be applied, but that different methods are appropriate in different cases. VoI is value to a decisionmaker of the difference information makes for a decision, or what a decisionmaker should pay for information. Compared to present practice, specific value of information techniques can potentially improve policy analysis and decision making. To that end, a methodology for policy applications of VoI is presented that can simplify practical application.

The dissertation applied computational methods for VoI to two case studies in disparate domains: biosurveillance and detection of violent extremists. Each of the case studies outlines how Bayesian methods can be used to evaluate VoI, including a novel formulation for considering additional information sources in the systems. The case studies are used both to consider the relative benefits and drawbacks of these approaches in policy decision making, and to identify potential challenges. Approaches for identifying and avoiding these challenges and for selecting appropriate methods are integrated into the overall methodology, which is presented in the final chapter.

目录

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    An Overview of Policy Decisions for VoI Questions

  • Chapter Three

    Threat Fusion Case Study

  • Chapter Four

    Influenza Case Study

  • Chapter Five

    Methodology for Policy Applications of VoI

  • Appendix A

    Mathematical Formulation of VoI Problem Types

  • Appendix B

    Threat Model Bayesian Networks

  • Appendix C

    Stan Influenza Model and Data Files

主题Biosurveillance ; Influenza ; Robust Decision Making ; Terrorism Threat Assessment
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD408.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/112027
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David Manheim. Value of Information for Policy Analysis. 2018.
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