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The present status of the belligerents suggests the conflict has reached a stalemate

• Constrained by concerns about defections, Assad relies on his elite Alawite units, overwhelming firepower, and sectarian loyalists.
• The rebels cannot be crushed, but they depend on others to bring down Assad.
• Pro-government militias are likely to play an increasingly dominant role in the conflict.
• Islamic hardliners will increasingly dominate the rebellion.

The Syrian civil war has implications for actors outside of Syria's borders

• Assad's foreign supporters, such as Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are in it for themselves.
• Absent a major provocation, Western military intervention seems unlikely.
• Syria's civil war could evolve into a wider regional war.

The future of Syria is bleak, and the consequences of its civil war will linger for decades

• For the foreseeable future, no government will be able to rule all of what was the modern state of Syria.
• A political settlement is unlikely.
• Assad's willingness to surrender his chemical weapons will neither end the conflict nor weaken his regime.
• The sectarian undercurrents that divide the country and the region have become the central pathology of the Syrian conflict — they will impede its resolution.
• Syria's national institutions are eroding — they are being replaced by local and foreign loyalties.
• Foreign fighters flocking to Syria pose a future international terrorist threat.