G2TT
来源类型Perspectives
规范类型论文
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.7249/PE192
ISBN9780833094537
来源IDPE-192-RC
Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World
Charles P. Ries
发表日期2016
出版年2016
页码68
语种英语
结论

Several Features of the Current Structure Hinder Good Decisionmaking

  • While the exact number of professional National Security Council staff is unclear, insiders cite the Obama administration's NSC staff as more than 500. Such a large staff has a number of downsides.
  • A balanced civil-military relationship is critical to managing the different time lines under which military officials and diplomats operate through conflict and postconflict situations.
  • Current messaging systems face several challenges, including obsolescence, lack of departmental cross-over, and inconsistent application of standards for archiving and dissemination.
  • Intelligence insights are more systematically integrated into the policy process, though recent senior officials note the effect may be to reinforce risk aversion.

Several Factors Impinge on U.S. National Security Strategy Formulation

  • Large states are presenting new types of security challenges — especially China and Russia.
  • Nonstate actors play a bigger role and have a longer reach.
  • Environmental stress is an increasing concern.
  • The interconnected global economic system means that problems in region can quickly affect the rest of the world.
  • The proliferation and dispersion of weapons technology and delivery systems means that conflicts can quickly escalate in violence levels and jump across borders.
  • The United States has fewer resources to bind its allies and pressure its adversaries.
  • Patterns of energy supply and investment, always important in geopolitical terms, change more quickly and more thoroughly than ever.
  • Climate change poses a new challenge — both urgent and long-term — to economic security and resilience.
摘要

Every president needs a decisionmaking system that harnesses the full capabilities and accumulated wisdom of the U.S. government and the nation's many stakeholders. Yet national security professionals — the officials who must advise the president on the most-difficult decisions — cite a range of structural problems that hinder effective policymaking. While a more focused and timely decisionmaking process will not necessarily improve outcomes for the United States, poor choices could be calamitous. This Perspective analyzes a range of management challenges in the national security system and presents eight recommendations for strengthening U.S. decisionmaking and oversight of policy implementation. Among the conclusions: The National Security Council staff size should be reduced to better focus on high-priority areas. Civil-military operations should be planned by a new joint office at the State Department with a military general officer as deputy. Red-team and lessons-learned efforts would help ensure that the system is adaptive and responsive. Better integration of intelligence insights and secondments of senior officials across agencies can improve the quality and coherence of decisionmaking. And the use of special envoys, or "czars," should be limited.

目录

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Why Process Matters

  • Chapter Three

    How Did the National Security System Evolve?

  • Chapter Four

    Previous Attempts at Reform

  • Chapter Five

    Changing Environment

  • Chapter Six

    Recommendations for the National Security Decision Structure

  • Chapter Seven

    Conclusion: Strategizing, Decisionmaking, and Policy Implementation

主题Civil-Military Relations ; Decisionmaking ; Domestic Intelligence ; Intelligence Analysis ; National Security Organizations ; Terrorism Risk Management
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE192.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/112529
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Charles P. Ries. Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World. 2016.
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