全球智库信息集成服务系统

Most Urgent Threat to U.S. Interests in Syria Is Spread of Terrorist Groups

• U.S. objectives in Syria — including a political settlement and defeating the Islamic State and the Syrian Conquest Front (formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda's Syria affiliate) — are best served by working with Russia and through the UN Security Council, especially in the absence of a regional diplomatic consensus on ending the war.
• Postconflict governance, security, and reconstruction in Syria will benefit from the unity of the UN Security Council.
• Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's transition from power is best achieved in the context of UN-brokered negotiations on a political settlement involving the United States and its Middle East partners with Russia and Iran, rather than via steps which would serve to escalate or prolong the conflict.

Postconflict Stabilization Will Be Unlikely If Syria Is Subject to Division or Partition

• The United States should oppose any and all policies that seek to partition or divide Syria. A collapsed, divided, or fractured Syrian state would likely contribute to further instability and radicalization in Syria and the region.
• Syria's relatively strong national identity and experience of centralized authority reinforce the prospects for a unified state.
• Lessons from recent conflicts, including U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, suggest that postconflict security, governance, and reconstruction in Syria will require viable, centralized state institutions.