| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Discounting an Uncertain Future |
| Christian Gollier
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| 发表日期 | 1997
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| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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| 出版年 | 1997
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We discuss the selection of the socially optimal discount rate for public investment projects that entail costs and benefits in the very long run. More specifically, we examine in an expected utility framework how the uncertainty on the growth rate of the GNP per head affects this rate. Under various conditions on preferences, as positive prudence, decreasing relative risk aversion or decreasing absolute risk aversion, we prove that (1) the fact that growth is uncertain reduces the optimal discount rate, and (2) that this discount rate should be smaller the longer the time horizon is. This rate could even become zero or negative if there is a positive probability that growth be negative. We also examine the case of Kreps-Porteus social welfare functions. |
| 特色分类 | D81,D91,Q25,Q28
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| 关键词 | Discounting,Uncertain growth,Log-supermodularity,Prudence,Kreps-Porteus preference
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/discounting-an-uncertain-future/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/116276
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Christian Gollier. Discounting an Uncertain Future. 1997.
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文件名：
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NDL1997-077.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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