| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Short-Term Decisions Under Long-Term Uncertainty |
| Richard S.J. Tol
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| 发表日期 | 1997
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| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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| 出版年 | 1997
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The behaviour of future policy-makers substantially influences future greenhouse gas emissions. Uncertainty about the motives of future policy-makers may thus strongly influence the climate policy strategies of current policy-makers. Analytical and numerical analyses in this paper confirm this hypothesis. If current policy-makers want to constrain emissions accumulated over a prolonged period of time, and if future policy-makers tend, with a certain chance, to a less ambitious climate policy, then current policy-makers should intensify their efforts to reduce emissions and the costs of emission reduction. In this setting, if current policy-makers want to meet a cumulative emission constraint in expectation, then the preferred policy trajectory does not qualitatively deviate from one suggested by a standard cost-effective trajectory. If, however, the constraint is to be met with a certain probability, then the importance of early action is enhanced relative to that of postponed action. Costs substantially increase if current policy-makers want to set long-term goals without the full co-operation of future policy-makers. |
| 特色分类 | D80,Q40
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| 关键词 | Greenhouse gas emission reduction,Cost-effectiveness analysis,Uncertainty
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/short-term-decisions-under-long-term-uncertainty/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/116289
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Richard S.J. Tol. Short-Term Decisions Under Long-Term Uncertainty. 1997.
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文件名：
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NDL1997-090.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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