| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Discounting and Sustainability in Integrated Assessment Models | |
| Bob van der Zwaan; Reyer Gerlagh | |
| 发表日期 | 1999 |
| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development |
| 出版年 | 1999 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Most currently employed Integrated Assessment Models are of a dynastic nature, commonly assuming a fixed relation between pure time preference, economic growth and interest rate. This rigid relation has led to much debate on which level of discounting to adopt. Especially the quantitative results of Integrated Assessment Models have been subject to controversy because of their strong sensitivity on future discounting. Many economic analysts advocate employing a descriptive time preference, based on historic data, which usually represents an approximate efficient use of environmental resources. Others encourage assuming a prescriptive time discounting, allowing them - by taking low discount values - to model a sustainable use of environmental services. This paper argues that, although a fixed time preference relation might be convenient for economic analysis, such a supposition can be misleading. By avoiding a rigid discounting relation, the descriptive-prescriptive controversy can be avoided. It is concluded that dynastic Integrated Assessment Models are in many respects inappropriate for providing policy makers with quantitative figures about the costs of carbon dioxide emissions, and their desirable reduction levels. In contrast, Overlapping Generations models, allowing the use of a flexible discounting relation, are suitable for designing a broad class of policy instruments. With the Integrated Assessment Model ALICE 2.0, it is shown how various assumptions on demographic change and public institutions can affect the interest rate, thereby influencing the desired optimal greenhouse gas emission reductions. It is recommended that economic modelling intensify attempting to establish both efficient and sustainable resource use. The discount rate should be treated as an endogenous variable, rather than an exogenous parameter characterising a central planner. |
| 特色分类 | Q20,Q28,Q40,Q48,H40,C61,J18 |
| 关键词 | Discounting,sustainability,dynastic models,OLG models,IAMs,ageing,trust funds |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/discounting-and-sustainability-in-integrated-assessment-models/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/116455 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bob van der Zwaan,Reyer Gerlagh. Discounting and Sustainability in Integrated Assessment Models. 1999. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| NDL1999-063.pdf（228KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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