| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets | |
| Alessandro Lanza; Matteo Manera; Massimo Giovannini | |
| 发表日期 | 2003 |
| 出处 | Energy: Resources and Markets |
| 出版年 | 2003 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper we investigate crude oil and products price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten price series of crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products, considering four distinct market areas (Mediterranean, North Western Europe, Latin America and North America) over the period 1994-2002. We provide first a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models. Subsequently we use the error correction specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002.The main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: a) differences in quality are crucial to understand the behaviour of crudes; b) prices of crude oils whose physical characteristics are more similar to the marker show the following regularities: b1) they converge more rapidly to the long-run equilibrium; b2) there is an almost monotonic relation between Mean Absolute Percentage Error values and crude quality, measured by API° gravity and sulphur concentration; c) the price of the marker is the driving variable of the crude price also in the short-run, irrespective of the specific geographical area and the quality of the crude under analysis. |
| 特色分类 | C22,D40,E32 |
| 关键词 | Oil prices,Product prices,Error correction models,Forecasting |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/oil-and-product-price-dynamics-in-international-petroleum-markets/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/116909 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alessandro Lanza,Matteo Manera,Massimo Giovannini. Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets. 2003. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| NDL2003-081.pdf（1343KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
