| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Accounting for Extreme Events in the Economic Assessment of Climate Change |
| Stéphane Hallegatte
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| 发表日期 | 2005
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| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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| 出版年 | 2005
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Extreme events are one of the main channels through which climate and socio- economic systems interact. It is likely that climate change will modify their probability distributions and their consequences. The long-term growth models used in climate change assessments, however, cannot capture the effects of short-term shocks; they thus model extreme events in a very crude manner. To assess the importance of this limitation, a non-equilibrium dynamic model (NEDyM) is used to model the macroeconomic consequences of extreme events. Its conclusions are the following: (i) Dynamic processes multiply the extreme event direct costs by a factor 20; half of this increase comes from short-term processes; (ii) A possible modication of the extreme event distribution due to climate change can be responsible for significant GDP losses; (iii) The production losses caused by extreme events depend, with strong non-linearity, both on the changes in the extreme distribution and on the ability to fund the rehabilitation after each disaster. These conclusions illustrate that the economic assessment of climate change does not only depend on beliefs on climate change but also on beliefs on the economy. Moreover, they suggest that averaging short-term processes like extreme events over the five- or ten-year time step of a classical long-term growth model can lead to inaccurately low assessments of the climate change damages. |
| 特色分类 | E10,E22,O16,O40
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| 关键词 | Climate change,Extreme events,Economic impacts
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/accounting-for-extreme-events-in-the-economic-assessment-of-climate-change/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117114
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Stéphane Hallegatte. Accounting for Extreme Events in the Economic Assessment of Climate Change. 2005.
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文件名：
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NDL2005-001.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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