| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather | |
| Michael Greenstone; Olivier Deschenes | |
| 发表日期 | 2006 |
| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land by estimating the effect of the presumably random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. Using long-run climate change predictions from the Hadley 2 Model, the preferred estimates indicate that climate change will lead to a $1.1 billion (2002$) or 3.4% increase in annual profits. The 95% confidence interval ranges from -$1.8 billion to $4.0 billion and the impact is robust to a wide variety of specification checks, so large negative or positive effects are unlikely. There is considerable heterogeneity in the effect across the country with California's predicted impact equal to -$2.4 billion (or nearly 50% of state agricultural profits). Further, the analysis indicates that the predicted increases in temperature and precipitation will have virtually no effect on yields among the most important crops. These crop yield findings suggest that the small effect on profits is not due to short-run price increases. The paper also implements the hedonic approach that is predominant in the previous literature. We conclude that this approach may be unreliable, because it produces estimates of the effect of climate change that are very sensitive to seemingly minor decisions about the appropriate control variables, sample and weighting. Overall, the findings contradict the popular view that climate change will have substantial negative welfare consequences for the US agricultural sector. |
| 特色分类 | Q50,Q12,Q54,Q51 |
| 关键词 | Cost of climate change,Hedonics,Agricultural profits,Agricultural production,Crop yields |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-economic-impacts-of-climate-change-evidence-from-agricultural-profits-and-random-fluctuations-in-weather/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117270 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael Greenstone,Olivier Deschenes. The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| NDL2006-006.pdf（1111KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
