| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks | |
| Stéphane Hallegatte; Michael Ghil | |
| 发表日期 | 2007 |
| 出处 | Economy and Society |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | In this paper, we investigate the macroeconomic response to exogenous shocks, namely natural disasters and stochastic productivity shocks. To do so, we make use of an endogenous business cycle model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investment–profit instability; the amplitude of this instability is constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity and thus results in a finite-amplitude business cycle. This model is found to exhibit a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions, because the exogenous shock amplifies pre-existing disequilibria when occurring during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions allows for damping the shock. Our model also shows a higher output variability in response to stochastic productivity shocks during expansions than during recessions. This finding is at odds with the classical real-cycle theory, but it is supported by the analysis of quarterly U.S. Gross Domestic Product series; the latter series exhibits, on average, a variability that is 2.6 times larger during expansions than during recessions. |
| 特色分类 | E01,E20,E32,E40,Q54 |
| 关键词 | Business cycles,Natural disasters,Productivity shocks,Output variability |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/endogenous-business-cycles-and-the-economic-response-to-exogenous-shocks/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117440 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stéphane Hallegatte,Michael Ghil. Endogenous Business Cycles and the Economic Response to Exogenous Shocks. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| NDL2007-020.pdf（564KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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