| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions? | |
| Klaus Keller; Louise I. Miltich; Alexander Robinson; Richard S.J. Tol | |
| 发表日期 | 2007 |
| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections. |
| 特色分类 | Q540 |
| 关键词 | Carbon Dioxide,Emissions,Scenarios,Data Assimilation,Markov Chain Monte Carlo |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/how-overconfident-are-current-projections-of-anthropogenic-carbon-dioxide-emissions/ |
| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117458 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klaus Keller,Louise I. Miltich,Alexander Robinson,et al. How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?. 2007. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| NDL2007-039.pdf（515KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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