全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices
	Haiyan Xu; ZhongXiang Zhang
发表日期	2011
出处	Energy: Resources and Markets
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	Crude oil prices have been fluctuating over time and by a large range. It is the disorganization of oil price series that makes it difficult to deduce the changing trends of oil prices in the middle- and long-terms and predict their price levels in the short-term. Following a price-state classification and state transition analysis of changing oil prices from January 2004 to April 2010, this paper first verifies that the observed crude oil price series during the soaring period follow a Markov Chain. Next, the paper deduces the changing trends of oil prices by the limit probability of a Markov Chain. We then undertake a probability distribution analysis and find that the oil price series have a log-normality distribution. On this basis, we integrate the two models to deduce the changing trends of oil prices from the short-term to the middle- and long-terms, thus making our deduction academically sound. Our results match the actual changing trends of oil prices, and show the possibility of re-emerging soaring oil prices.
特色分类	Q41;Q47;C12;C49;F01;O13
关键词	Oil Price Log-normality Distribution Limit Probability of a Markov Chain Trend Deduction Model OPEC
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/a-trend-deduction-model-of-fluctuating-oil-prices/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117960
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haiyan Xu,ZhongXiang Zhang. A Trend Deduction Model of Fluctuating Oil Prices. 2011.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
2011341038371Nota_di（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
201134118314NDL2011-（314KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览