| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| On the Economic Determinants of Oil Production. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for Small Exporting Countries |
| Alessandro Cologni; Matteo Manera
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| 发表日期 | 2011
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| 出处 | Energy: Resources and Markets
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| 出版年 | 2011
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | In this paper, decisions regarding production in oil exporting countries are studied by means of theoretical analysis and empirical investigation. Under the assumptions of exogenous oil prices and world oil demand, we are able to describe the relationship between oil production levels and changes in the conditions in world oil markets. Intertemporal production decisions by a representative oil producer are modelled by means of a partial equilibrium model. In this theoretical model, oil producers are subject to exogenous shocks in world oil demand and prices. Oil companies can change output levels only by incurring a fixed cost. Results from the simulation of this model show a strong relationship between oil production and changes in world oil consumption. On the contrary, the effects of changes in real oil prices on oil production decisions seem to be much lower. Results from the simulation of the theoretical model are then empirically investigated using time-series econometric techniques. The empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that several oil producing countries are characterized by different responses to changes in world oil demand and in real oil prices. For many countries production rapidly adjusts to changes in consumption whereas responses of oil production to innovations in real oil prices are found to be not statistically significant. In addition, when non-linearities in the relationship between exogenous variables and output levels are allowed for, evidence of asymmetric effects of output levels to shocks in demand levels and oil prices is found.
Suggested citation: Alessandro Cologni, Matteo Manera, On the economic determinants of oil production: Theoretical analysis and empirical evidence for small exporting countries, Energy Economics, Volume 44, July 2014, Pages 68-79, ISSN 0140-9883, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.019 |
| 特色分类 | C22;D21;D22;Q41
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| 关键词 | Oil Production
Exogenous Shocks
Theoretical Modelling
Time Series Analysis
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/on-the-economic-determinants-of-oil-production-theoretical-analysis-and-empirical-evidence-for-small-exporting-countries/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/117985
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推荐引用方式
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Alessandro Cologni,Matteo Manera. On the Economic Determinants of Oil Production. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence for Small Exporting Countries. 2011.
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