| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment |
| Stergios Athanassoglou; Valentina Bosetti; Gauthier de Maere d'Aertrycke
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| 发表日期 | 2012
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| 出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development
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| 出版年 | 2012
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar technology. The analysis suggests that more aggressive investment in solar technology R&D is likely to yield significant dividends even, or rather especially, after taking ambiguous aggregation into account.
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Suggested citation: Stergios Athanassoglou, Valentina Bosetti, Setting Environmental Policy When Experts Disagree, Environmental and Resource Economics, August 2015, Volume 61, Issue 4, pp 497-516, http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10640-014-9804-x |
| 特色分类 | C61;D81;Q42
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| 关键词 | Aggregation
Ambiguity
R&D
Expert Opinions
Convex/Conic Optimization
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/ambiguous-aggregation-of-expert-opinions-the-case-of-optimal-r-d-investment/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118046
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推荐引用方式
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Stergios Athanassoglou,Valentina Bosetti,Gauthier de Maere d'Aertrycke. Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment. 2012.
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