全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective
	Claudio Morana
发表日期	2012
出处	Energy: Resources and Markets
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	In this paper the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is investigated from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets are considered as well. We find that oil market shocks would have contributed to slowing down economic growth since the first Persian Gulf War episode. Among oil market shocks, supply side disturbances were the largest contributor to macro-financial fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of real activity variance. The latter shocks would have exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes; preferences, speculative and volatility shocks would have also contributed to exacerbate the recessionary episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a lower pace than required by demand conditions, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future. *** Suggested citation: C. Morana, The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective, The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation, Volume 34, Number 3, http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/01956574.34.3.8
特色分类	C22;E32;G12
关键词	Oil Price Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Macro-finance Interface International Business Cycle Factor Vector Autoregressive Models
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-oil-price-macroeconomy-relationship-since-the-mid-1980s-a-global-perspective/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118062
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Claudio Morana. The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective. 2012.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
2012510165161Nota_di（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
20121214135474NDL201（827KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览