全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation
	Julie Rozenberg; Céline Guivarch; Robert Lempert; Stéphane Hallegatte
发表日期	2012
出处	Climate Change and Sustainable Development
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to replace the SRES scenarios. To be used to investigate adaptation and mitigation, SSPs need to be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a “backward” approach. The methodology is based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios, such that they cover the uncertainty space in terms of challenges to adaptation and mitigation. This methodology is applied to the selection of a few SSPs, but it could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers. From a large database of runs built by many models, the methodology would allow selecting the most relevant scenarios for a specific decision, i.e. scenarios that best predict when the analyzed choice performs poorly or well.
特色分类	Q42;Q48;D72;O38
关键词	Socio-Economic Scenarios Climate Policy Mitigation Adaptation Shared Socio-Economic Pathways Scenario Elicitation Methodology
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/building-ssps-for-climate-policy-analysis-a-scenario-elicitation-methodology-to-map-the-space-of-possible-future-challenges-to-mitigation-and-adaptation/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Julie Rozenberg,Céline Guivarch,Robert Lempert,et al. Building SSPs for Climate Policy Analysis: A Scenario Elicitation Methodology to Map the Space of Possible Future Challenges to Mitigation and Adaptation. 2012.

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