全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The “Doomsday” Effect in Climate Policies. Why is the Present Decade so Crucial to Tackling the Climate Challenge?

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	The “Doomsday” Effect in Climate Policies. Why is the Present Decade so Crucial to Tackling the Climate Challenge?
	Baptiste Perrissin Fabert; Etienne Espagne; Antonin Pottier; Patrice Dumas
发表日期	2012
出处	Climate Change and Sustainable Development
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	Despite growing scientific evidence that passing a 2°C temperature increase may trigger tipping points in climate dynamics, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) based on Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) with smooth quadratic damage functions are unable to account for the possibility of strong increase in climate damage. Our IAM RESPONSE makes it possible to bridge this gap by integrating a threshold effect damage function which sets a threshold of temperature increase from which climate damages increase significantly. To fit with on-going climate negotiations, this threshold is set at 2°C. Regardless of the bleak prospect of passing the threshold, it turns out that among a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of worldviews in the climate debate, overshooting the 2°C target and then facing the resulting damage may become an optimal strategy for many economic agents who are struck by what we call a “doomsday effect”. We show that this effect happens for any level of jump in damage and dramatically increases if the beginning of mitigation efforts is postponed till the decade 2010-2020 on. In light of these results, we believe that any further delay in reaching a clear international agreement will close the window of opportunity for meeting the 2°C target with a reasonable chance of diplomatic success.
特色分类	C61;Q54;Q58
关键词	Integrated Assessment Model Non Linear Effect Doomsday Effect 2°C Target
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-doomsday-effect-in-climate-policies-why-is-the-present-decade-so-crucial-to-tackling-the-climate-challenge/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118090
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baptiste Perrissin Fabert,Etienne Espagne,Antonin Pottier,等. The “Doomsday” Effect in Climate Policies. Why is the Present Decade so Crucial to Tackling the Climate Challenge?. 2012.

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