全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment
	Lion Hirth
发表日期	2013
出处	Energy: Resources and Markets
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	This paper estimates the welfare-optimal market share of wind and solar power, explicitly taking into account their output variability. We present a theoretical valuation framework that consistently accounts for output variability over time, forecast errors, and the location of generators in the power grid, and evaluate the impact of these three factors on the marginal value of electricity from renewables. Then we estimate the optimal share of wind and solar power in Northwestern Europe from a calibrated numerical power market model. The optimal long-term share of wind power of total electricity consumption is estimated to be 20% at cost levels of 50 €/MWh, about three times the current market share of wind; but this estimate is subject to significant parameter uncertainty. Variability significantly impacts results: if winds were constant, the optimal share would be 60%. In addition, the effect of technological change, price shocks, and policies on the optimal share is assessed. We present and explain several surprising findings, including a negative impact of CO2 prices on optimal wind deployment. Suggested citation: Hirth, L., (2013), 'The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment', Nota di Lavoro 90.2013, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
特色分类	C61;C63;Q42;Q48;D41
关键词	Wind Power Solar Power Variable Renewables Cost-Benefit Analysis Numerical Optimization Competitiveness
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-optimal-share-of-variable-renewables-how-the-variability-of-wind-and-solar-power-affects-their-welfare-optimal-deployment/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118114
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lion Hirth. The Optimal Share of Variable Renewables. How the Variability of Wind and Solar Power Affects their Welfare-optimal Deployment. 2013.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
20131028948361Nota_d（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
20131028948484NDL201（2555KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览