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来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
规范类型 | 论文 |
The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design | |
Laura Diaz Anadon; Gregory Nemet; Elena Verdolini | |
发表日期 | 2013 |
出处 | Climate Change and Sustainable Development |
出版年 | 2013 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | Characterizing the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is however scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important to designing energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts’ costs expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts’ median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts’ are less confident about costs than Europeans. *** Suggested citation: Diaz Anadon, L., G. Nemet, and E. Verdolini, (2013) , 'The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design' , Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) 034020, http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034020/. |
特色分类 | O3;Q5;Q55 |
关键词 | Nuclear Power Uncertainty Returns to RD&D Expert Elicitations Meta-Analysis |
URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-future-costs-of-nuclear-power-using-multiple-expert-elicitations-effects-of-rd-d-and-elicitation-design/ |
来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118117 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laura Diaz Anadon,Gregory Nemet,Elena Verdolini. The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design. 2013. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
2013109152251Nota_di(71KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
2013109152354NDL2013(2041KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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