G2TT
来源类型FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型论文
The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design
Laura Diaz Anadon; Gregory Nemet; Elena Verdolini
发表日期2013
出处Climate Change and Sustainable Development
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要Characterizing the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is however scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important to designing energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts’ implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts’ costs expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts’ median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts’ are less confident about costs than Europeans. *** Suggested citation: Diaz Anadon, L., G. Nemet, and E. Verdolini, (2013) , 'The future costs of nuclear power using multiple expert elicitations: effects of RD&D and elicitation design' , Environ. Res. Lett. 8 (2013) 034020, http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034020/.
特色分类O3;Q5;Q55
关键词Nuclear Power Uncertainty Returns to RD&D Expert Elicitations Meta-Analysis
URLhttps://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/the-future-costs-of-nuclear-power-using-multiple-expert-elicitations-effects-of-rd-d-and-elicitation-design/
来源智库Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118117
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Laura Diaz Anadon,Gregory Nemet,Elena Verdolini. The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design. 2013.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
2013109152251Nota_di(71KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
2013109152354NDL2013(2041KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Gregory Nemet]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Gregory Nemet]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Gregory Nemet]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: 2013109152251Nota_di_Lavoro.jpg
格式: JPEG
文件名: 2013109152354NDL2013-085.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。